tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post5128656983380952091..comments2024-03-25T21:14:21.671-04:00Comments on Listen Eggroll: Skandies: #7md'ahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06055853987416332662noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-13770930833218934632017-02-13T02:07:41.932-05:002017-02-13T02:07:41.932-05:00The problem with that method is that you have vote...The problem with that method is that you have voters like Noel who've given PRO to 29 films and voters like Mark who given PRO to literally zero. As I've noted before, that doesn't really reflect who loved more films; it's just people using the rating scale in completely different ways. But it does make for a pretty inexact science. <br /><br />On the other hand, many of the voters have publicly available top 10 lists, and you can gauge the likely results quite accurately using those (which I'm pretty sure is what Atli does). There are a few unknowns, like Matthew Butcher (who didn't vote this year), but not enough to make a huge difference. md'ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06055853987416332662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-14611075604194147262017-02-13T01:06:47.396-05:002017-02-13T01:06:47.396-05:00Well, let's look at the available stats.
Sile...Well, let's look at the available stats.<br /><br /><i>Silence</i> has seven AVB voters who went all-caps-PRO on Crix Pix.<br /><br /><i>Certain Woman</i> has five all-caps-PROs.<br /><br /><i>La La Land</i> has seven.<br /><br />It's anybody's game.Michaelhttp://academichack.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-64443969100073040182017-02-12T22:11:03.039-05:002017-02-12T22:11:03.039-05:00Also yes I have not scene THE FENCE sorry Violin D...Also yes I have not scene THE FENCE sorry Violin DavidtzPrivate Jokerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08115036526759106746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-18316746385552008212017-02-12T22:10:14.613-05:002017-02-12T22:10:14.613-05:00Ryan -- if other voters are like me (liked but did...Ryan -- if other voters are like me (liked but didn't adore SILENCE, and gave points to Garfield but not the film), I can see it missing out. Private Jokerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08115036526759106746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-53281091577333498692017-02-12T22:00:52.603-05:002017-02-12T22:00:52.603-05:00* If Certain Women (or, less likely, Hell or High ...* If <i>Certain Women</i> (or, less likely, <i>Hell or High Water</i>) were to actually land in the top 10, we'd come back to the question presented in comment 2: which one (or two) of the seven plausible contenders missed the cut completely? <i>Manchester</i> and <i>Toni Erdmann</i> are mortal locks. And I can't see <i>Paterson</i> failing to gather 35 points from other voters (after I factor in my own 21 points). <i>Cameraperson</i> and <i>Silence</i> are passiondex entries. When a weak link like Garfield lands in the top 10, it's hard to see <i>Silence</i> being denied a spot. So that leaves <i>La La Land</i>. Could it be? <br /><br />* With "Mia at Seb's"--<i>La La Land</i>'s clear peak--finishing out of the top 5 for Scene, I have to think yes.<br /><br />* Victor, you left out <i>Arrival</i> on the "just missed" list. <br /><br />* How in the world did Viola Davis only get 10 votes? Were they the only people who saw <i>Fences</i>?Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03078377790942736019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-63492145654526533312017-02-12T19:14:21.243-05:002017-02-12T19:14:21.243-05:00so 21-25 is ... CERTAIN WOMEN, LOVE AND FRIENDSHIP...<i>so 21-25 is ... CERTAIN WOMEN, LOVE AND FRIENDSHIP, HELL OR HIGH WATER, AQUARIUS and ...?</i><br /><br />You're actually missing two, because one of the above is wrong. (Answer will be up in less than 24 hours.)md'ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06055853987416332662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-28211557468507753502017-02-12T18:09:47.152-05:002017-02-12T18:09:47.152-05:00I'm predicting MANCHESTER 1, TONI ERDMANN 2.I'm predicting MANCHESTER 1, TONI ERDMANN 2. Private Jokerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08115036526759106746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-85915408461675729852017-02-12T17:28:41.140-05:002017-02-12T17:28:41.140-05:00so 21-25 is ... CERTAIN WOMEN, LOVE AND FRIENDSHIP...so 21-25 is ... CERTAIN WOMEN, LOVE AND FRIENDSHIP, HELL OR HIGH WATER, AQUARIUS and ...?<br /><br />Also Lawrence, members of the AVB don't thereby acquire the charism of prognostication. Don't defer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-7272745743143998502017-02-12T17:01:10.398-05:002017-02-12T17:01:10.398-05:00I defer to those actually in the AVB, but of those...I defer to those actually in the AVB, but of those choices I'd have guessed that SILENCE would be the one left out... Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12101164660906000382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-43039688806012488762017-02-12T16:59:01.851-05:002017-02-12T16:59:01.851-05:00Got to hand it to Atli. His forecast is holding up...Got to hand it to Atli. His forecast is holding up very well in an unpredictable year. I would've never guessed that <i>Everybody Wants Some!!</i> would finish so high. It's also one of those weird years where any one of three or four films has a realistic shot of topping the survey. But if I had to guess, I'd say <i>Toni Erdmann</i>. Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03078377790942736019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-14953045407429716512017-02-12T16:48:57.528-05:002017-02-12T16:48:57.528-05:00Agreed. Sadly, Certain Women is out.
Also, Emma S...Agreed. Sadly, <i>Certain Women</i> is out.<br /><br />Also, Emma Stone should have been #9. Just realized I mistakenly left out Kate Beckinsale for <i>Love & Friendship</i> (who should've garnered 10+ points from me). If I didn't screw up, Emma Stone and her 5 points would have been left off of my ballot. Oh well. Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03078377790942736019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-39832407341262475412017-02-12T16:47:39.153-05:002017-02-12T16:47:39.153-05:00Certain Women is toast. 21-25, down there with the...<i>Certain Women</i> is toast. 21-25, down there with the year's best film, <i>Aquarius</i>. So it goes.Michaelhttp://academichack.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-69100257963246900782017-02-12T16:01:37.805-05:002017-02-12T16:01:37.805-05:00Looks like I was completely off with that scene pr...Looks like I was completely off with that scene prediction. Guess I overestimated support for LA LA LAND, though I did think that even those who didn't like the film would give points to the scene.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12101164660906000382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-5106355762515004162017-02-12T15:28:23.332-05:002017-02-12T15:28:23.332-05:00Also this means seven remaining plausible films fo...Also this means seven remaining plausible films for six spots: CAMERAPERSON, CERTAIN WOMEN, LALALAND, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA, PATERSON, SILENCE and TONI ERDMANN.<br /><br />I'm hoping the Reichardt isn't the one left out in the cold, but that's what I'd bet my last dollar on if it came to that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8838733.post-73481977584859211932017-02-12T15:03:17.304-05:002017-02-12T15:03:17.304-05:00Garfield?Garfield?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com