Not all that much suspense about who/what remains, so let's answer potential questions about near-misses and no-chances here, as well as give the top picks a little additional airtime. (Sorry it's all text, incidentally—I have virtually no HTML skills and invariably mangle any attempt to combine words and images, except in the most basic just-one-image-up-at-the-top kind of way.)
Best Picture
• Certified Copy
• House of Pleasures
• Margaret
• A Separation
• The Tree of Life
Overlap with Oscar nominees:
The Tree of Life.
Just missed:
The Sleeping Beauty (#21—this is the second consecutive year, following
Bluebeard, that Breillat has finished in this spot),
Weekend (#22),
13 Assassins (#23),
War Horse (#24),
The Future (#25)
Not so much:
The Descendants (#26),
The Artist (#30),
Midnight in Paris (#57),
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (#73),
The Help (no votes).
Best Director
• Bertrand Bonello,
House of Pleasures• Asghar Farhadi,
A Separation• Abbas Kiarostami,
Certified Copy• Terrence Malick,
The Tree of Life• Nicolas Winding Refn,
DrivePrevious "nominations": Only Malick, who is 3-for-3; he placed 4th for
The Thin Red Line in 1998 and won for
The New World in 2005.
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Malick.
Just missed: Julia Leigh,
Sleeping Beauty (#21); Alexander Payne,
The Descendants (#22); Catherine Breillat,
The Sleeping Beauty (tie for #23); Bennett Miller,
Moneyball (tie for #23); Steven Spielberg,
War Horse (tie for #23).
Not so much: Michel Hazanavicius,
The Artist (#36); Woody Allen,
Midnight in Paris (no votes).
Best Actress
• Juliette Binoche,
Certified Copy• Kirsten Dunst,
Melancholia• Elizabeth Olsen,
Martha Marcy May Marlene• Anna Paquin,
Margaret• Tilda Swinton,
We Need to Talk About KevinPrevious "nominations": Swinton ties the all-time record with four appearances in the top five (shared with Cate Blanchett, Nicolas Cage, Nicole Kidman, Meryl Streep, and Billy Bob Thornton). She previously placed 5th for
The Deep End (2001) and 4th in Supporting for
Michael Clayton (2007), and won Best Actress two years ago for
Julia. Binoche has one previous "nom," for
Flight of the Red Balloon (#5, 2008).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: None.
Just missed: Kseniya Rappoport,
The Double Hour (#21); Joyce McKinney,
Tabloid (#22); Kate Lyn Sheil,
Silver Bullets (#23); Jessica Chastain,
The Debt (#24); Felicity Jones,
Like Crazy (#25).
Not so much: Viola Davis,
The Help (#27); Michelle Williams,
My Week With Marilyn (#36); Glenn Close,
Albert Nobbs (no votes).
Best Actor
• Michael Fassbender,
Shame• Ryan Gosling,
Drive• Peyman Moadi,
A Separation• Brad Pitt,
Moneyball• Michael Shannon,
Take ShelterPrevious "nominations": Everyone but Moadi has been here before. Pitt also ties the all-time record (see below)— he was one of the Oscar-style Supporting Actor nominees in 1995 (the survey's inaugural year, featuring different rules), for
Twelve Monkeys, and placed 2nd in Supporting for
Burn After Reading (2008). Gosling won Best Actor in 2006 for
Half Nelson. Fassbender placed 5th for
Hunger two years ago. And Shannon placed 4th in Supporting for
Revolutionary Road (2008).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Pitt.
Just missed: Yvan Attal,
Rapt (#21); John Boyega,
Attack the Block (#22); Grigory Dobrygin,
How I Ended This Summer (tie for #23); Jacob Wysocki,
Terri (tie for #23); William Shimell,
Certified Copy (#25).
Not so much: Demián Bichir,
A Better Life (no votes).
Best Supporting Actor
• Albert Brooks,
Drive• Shahab Hosseini,
A Separation• Brad Pitt,
The Tree of Life• Christopher Plummer,
Beginners• John C. Reilly,
TerriPrevious "nominations": As mentioned above, Pitt, with two "nominations" this year, ties the all-time record of four; see Best Actor for details. The only other repeat is Reilly, who placed 2nd in Supporting in 1999 for
Magnolia (exactly tied with Tom Cruise for the same film).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Plummer.
Just missed: Sacha Baron Cohen,
Hugo (tie for #21); Ben Kingsley,
Hugo (tie for #21); Kieran Culkin,
Margaret (#23); Jeremy Irons,
Margin Call (#24); Gorô Inagaki,
13 Assassins (#25).
Not so much: Max von Sydow,
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (#108); Kenneth Branagh,
My Week With Marilyn (no votes).
Best Supporting Actress
• Sareh Bayat,
A Separation• Jeannie Berlin,
Margaret• Elle Fanning,
Super 8• Mirela Oprisor,
Tuesday, After Christmas• J. Smith-Cameron,
MargaretPrevious "nominations": Nobody
Overlap with Oscar nominees: None.
Just missed: Juno Temple,
Kaboom (#21); Christine Bottomley,
The Arbor (#22); Olivia Crocicchia,
Terri (tie for #23); Sarah Paulson,
Martha Marcy May Marlene (tie for #23); Jessica Chastain,
The Help (#25).
Not so much: Octavia Spencer,
The Help (#28); Janet McTeer,
Albert Nobbs (no votes).
Best Screenplay
• Alexandru Baciu, Radu Muntean and Razvan Radulescu,
Tuesday, After Christmas• Asghar Farhadi,
A Separation• Abbas Kiarostami,
Certified Copy• Kenneth Lonergan,
Margaret• Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin,
MoneyballPrevious "nominations": Two former winners in this category: Lonergan (
You Can Count on Me, 2000) and Sorkin (last year for
The Social Network).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Farhadi, Zaillian + Sorkin.
Just missed: Xavier Beauvois and Etienne Comar,
Of Gods & Men (#21); Scott Z. Burns,
Contagion (#22); Diablo Cody,
Young Adult (#23); Joe Cornish,
Attack the Block (#24); John Michael McDonagh,
The Guard (#25).
Not so much: Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan,
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (#26); Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumolo,
Bridesmaids (#31); Woody Allen,
Midnight in Paris (tie for #35); John Logan,
Hugo (tie for #35); George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon,
The Ides of March (#75); Michel Hazanavicius,
The Artist (no votes).
Best Scene
Nah, I gotta save
something as a surprise.