Picture: Woman on the Beach (91/7)
Director: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, Burn After Reading (76/9)
Actress: Naomi Watts, Funny Games (84/11)
Actor: Colin Farrell, In Bruges (69/7)
S. Actor: James Franco, Pineapple Express (57/8)
S. Actress: Tilda Swinton, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (78/8)
Screenplay: Fatih Akin, The Edge of Heaven (81/7)
Scene: Philippe steps into the abyss, Man on Wire (49/5)
[French dialogue is unsubtitled, but I don't think it really matters. You get the gist.]
HISTORY:
The Coens (or just Joel, as they used to claim) have previously placed 3rd for Fargo (1996), 10th for The Big Lebowski (1998), 5th for O Brother, Where Art Thou? (2000), 3rd for The Man Who Wasn't There (2001), and 2nd last year for No Country for Old Men. So this is their weakest finish to date, excluding the weak-ass stuff like Intolerable Cruelty and The Ladykillers that didn't place at all.
In addition to winning Best Actress in 2001 for Mulholland Dr., Watts has placed 12th for 21 Grams (2003), 20th in Supporting for I ♥ Huckabees (2004), and 7th for King Kong (2005). Swinton makes her sixth top 20 appearance: 18th in the lead category for Female Perversions (1997), 5th (lead) for The Deep End (2001), 9th for The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2005), 19th for Thumbsucker (also 2005), and 4th just last year for Michael Clayton. Franco was covered two days ago when he placed 15th in the same category for Milk. Farrell has never before made the cut.
This is Akin's first Screenplay nod; he failed to place for Head-On, though it finished 12th in Best Picture.
11 comments:
Only off by 3 days in my snide Swinton for Button prediction.
I regret not seeing this picture. But what is the big deal about this Ken Burns type "scene."
Kinda surprised to see the Coens this low, since I expect the film to be #6 or #7.
Is it me or have the Skandie results gotten artier? There used to be a sizable middlebrow contingent pushing Oscarbait, but the top 20 so far look like an echo of IndieWire, with more artiness to come. Will this year be the first in which no Oscar Best Pic nominees land in the top 20? I say yes.
Might as well post my predictions for the remaining films while I'm pontificating:
12. Encounters at the End of the World.
11. Wendy and Lucy
10. In the City of Sylvia
09. Paranoid Park
08. Synecdoche, New York
07. Burn After Reading
06. A Christmas Tale
05. The Dark Knight
04. Silent Light
03. 4 Months...
02. Rachel Getting Married
01. Wall*E
Is it me or have the Skandie results gotten artier?
Somewhat. A number of the middlebrow voters you mention have bowed out over the last few years, to be replaced by more hardcore cinephile types. Still, there are a few key respects in which we diverge from the iW/VV/c_s sensibility. Remember when The Prestige nearly won two years ago? That was awesome. (And you yourself predict that this year's Chris Nolan film will fare better here than it has among the highbrows.)
As for your swami act, you're generally in the ballpark, as usual. But two of the films on your list are not forthcoming.
Oh, I probably should have gone with My Winnipeg over the Reichardt or the Herzog. Kinda stumped about the other one. Duchess of Langeais? Happy-Go-Lucky?
The highbrows, sadly, just don't have room for well-made commercial blockbusters. Don't remember where LOTR finished, but Dark Knight total omission from the _Film Comment_ top 20 was pretty egregious.
Kinda surprised to see the Coens this low, since I expect the film to be #6 or #7.
I wasn't. To compare to last year, the suspense-mood piece NO COUNTRY was clearly a "direction" movie, while quotable-comedy BURN is clearly a "script" movie (with the performers getting the rest of the credit -- notice how nearly every one of the principal characters has or will make a Skandie Top 20 bow).
It wouldn't surprise me at all, in fact, to see the Coens take home the big prize for Script (if the film finishes #3 or #4 overall, which like you I doubt), I'd call that a virtual certainty.
Let me qualify that some ... NO COUNTRY actually finished #2 for script last year, and Mike's history-talk from then indicates that their well-regarded (Skandiewise) films have placed about equally well in both script and direction.
Still, my bad history aside ... I stand by both my opinion that BURN is clearly a "strong script" movie that doesn't declare itself "directorial masterpiece" and my predix that the film overall will do significantly better than #13 and the film's script better still.
Ok, here's my prediction for the rest of the films:
12. Encounters at the End of the World.
11. Edge of Heaven
10. Burn After Reading
09. Synecdoche, New York
08. A Christmas Tale
07. My Winnipeg
06. Paranoid Park
05. The Dark Knight
04. Rachel Getting Married
03. 4 Months...
02. Silent Light
01. Wall*E
A number of the middlebrow voters you mention have bowed out over the last few years, to be replaced by more hardcore cinephile types.
I just wanna be Least Discerning Voter yet again. This is a good trend.
Will this year be the first in which no Oscar Best Pic nominees land in the top 20? I say yes.
I say hell yes, and justifiably so. Hopefully not even top 30.
Will this year be the first in which no Oscar Best Pic nominees land in the top 20? I say yes.
It isn't our fault the Academy snubbed Dark Knight in favor of Hot Nazi With the Jugs. I mean jesus.
I regret not seeing this picture. But what is the big deal about this Ken Burns type "scene."
Seeing eloquent talking heads unable to describe what they saw beyond "profound," reduced to tears and wordlessness and hearing the infectious joy in their voices years after witnessing it elevates this scene beyond the Ken Burns effect for me. And luckily they came prepared to photograph the event, even, on top of all the gear they had to smuggle up. The smile on Petit's face is evident when the wire passes his test and he then begins to "perform."
I didn't vote for this scene, nor any other scenes since I couldn't fill up my ballot and ponder the rules for this category without getting a headache. Sorry. The policeman's interview that follows this scene where he describes Petit as a tightrope dancer was on my shortlist, though.
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