12 February 2017

Skandies: #7


Picture: Everybody Wants Some!! (128/13)
Director: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea (125/11)
Actress: Emma Stone, La La Land (140/12)
Actor: Andrew Garfield, Silence (73/9)
S. Actor: Ralph Fiennes, A Bigger Splash (132/13)
S. Actress: Viola Davis, Fences (100/10)
Screenplay: Richard Linklater, Everybody Wants Some!! (129/12)
Scene: Mia at Seb's, La La Land (72/6)


sk7 from Daniel Gemko on Vimeo.

Uh, spoilers.

HISTORY:

Lonergan also placed 7th for Margaret in 2011, plus 11th for You Can Count on Me (2000).

All veteran actors again today. Fiennes is by far the most honored, joining the ranks of those with eight career appearances in the top 20. (Only eight actors have managed more than that.) The roster:

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (2014)
2. The English Patient (1996)
7s. A Bigger Splash (2016)
12s. In Bruges (2008)
16. Coriolanus (2011)
18s. Hail, Caesar! (2016)
19. Oscar and Lucinda (1997)
19. The End of the Affair (1999)

Both women get their third nod—Stone placed 13th for Easy A (2010) and 8th in Supporting for Birdman (2014), while Davis has previously landed in this category at #8 (Doubt, 2008) and #18 (Blackhat, 2015). Garfield's only other appearance was 4th in Supporting for The Social Network (2010).

Linklater was "nominated" for all three Before films—there's no way to know how he placed for Before Sunrise, as 1995 (year one) was conducted Oscar-style (all I can say for certain is that he didn't win), but he placed 2nd for Sunset (2004) and won for Midnight (2013), both of which he co-wrote with Delpy and Hawke. He also placed 9th for A Scanner Darkly (2006), 19th for Bernie (2012, written with Skip Hollandsworth), and 5th for Boyhood (2014).



15 comments:

vjmorton said...

Garfield?

vjmorton said...

Also this means seven remaining plausible films for six spots: CAMERAPERSON, CERTAIN WOMEN, LALALAND, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA, PATERSON, SILENCE and TONI ERDMANN.

I'm hoping the Reichardt isn't the one left out in the cold, but that's what I'd bet my last dollar on if it came to that.

Lawrence Neal Garcia said...

Looks like I was completely off with that scene prediction. Guess I overestimated support for LA LA LAND, though I did think that even those who didn't like the film would give points to the scene.

Michael said...

Certain Women is toast. 21-25, down there with the year's best film, Aquarius. So it goes.

Ryan said...

Agreed. Sadly, Certain Women is out.

Also, Emma Stone should have been #9. Just realized I mistakenly left out Kate Beckinsale for Love & Friendship (who should've garnered 10+ points from me). If I didn't screw up, Emma Stone and her 5 points would have been left off of my ballot. Oh well.

Ryan said...

Got to hand it to Atli. His forecast is holding up very well in an unpredictable year. I would've never guessed that Everybody Wants Some!! would finish so high. It's also one of those weird years where any one of three or four films has a realistic shot of topping the survey. But if I had to guess, I'd say Toni Erdmann.

Lawrence Neal Garcia said...

I defer to those actually in the AVB, but of those choices I'd have guessed that SILENCE would be the one left out...

vjmorton said...

so 21-25 is ... CERTAIN WOMEN, LOVE AND FRIENDSHIP, HELL OR HIGH WATER, AQUARIUS and ...?

Also Lawrence, members of the AVB don't thereby acquire the charism of prognostication. Don't defer.

Private Joker said...

I'm predicting MANCHESTER 1, TONI ERDMANN 2.

md'a said...

so 21-25 is ... CERTAIN WOMEN, LOVE AND FRIENDSHIP, HELL OR HIGH WATER, AQUARIUS and ...?

You're actually missing two, because one of the above is wrong. (Answer will be up in less than 24 hours.)

Ryan said...

* If Certain Women (or, less likely, Hell or High Water) were to actually land in the top 10, we'd come back to the question presented in comment 2: which one (or two) of the seven plausible contenders missed the cut completely? Manchester and Toni Erdmann are mortal locks. And I can't see Paterson failing to gather 35 points from other voters (after I factor in my own 21 points). Cameraperson and Silence are passiondex entries. When a weak link like Garfield lands in the top 10, it's hard to see Silence being denied a spot. So that leaves La La Land. Could it be?

* With "Mia at Seb's"--La La Land's clear peak--finishing out of the top 5 for Scene, I have to think yes.

* Victor, you left out Arrival on the "just missed" list.

* How in the world did Viola Davis only get 10 votes? Were they the only people who saw Fences?

Private Joker said...

Ryan -- if other voters are like me (liked but didn't adore SILENCE, and gave points to Garfield but not the film), I can see it missing out.

Private Joker said...

Also yes I have not scene THE FENCE sorry Violin Davidtz

Michael said...

Well, let's look at the available stats.

Silence has seven AVB voters who went all-caps-PRO on Crix Pix.

Certain Woman has five all-caps-PROs.

La La Land has seven.

It's anybody's game.

md'a said...

The problem with that method is that you have voters like Noel who've given PRO to 29 films and voters like Mark who given PRO to literally zero. As I've noted before, that doesn't really reflect who loved more films; it's just people using the rating scale in completely different ways. But it does make for a pretty inexact science.

On the other hand, many of the voters have publicly available top 10 lists, and you can gauge the likely results quite accurately using those (which I'm pretty sure is what Atli does). There are a few unknowns, like Matthew Butcher (who didn't vote this year), but not enough to make a huge difference.