• Manchester By The Sea
• Toni Erdmann
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Manchester By The Sea
Just missed: Aquarius (tie for #21), Certain Women (tie for #21), The Other Side (#23), Arrival (#24), Hell or High Water (#25).
Not so much: Hacksaw Ridge (#61), Hidden Figures (no votes), Lion (no votes).
• Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann
• Damien Chazelle, La La Land
• Jim Jarmusch, Paterson
• Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
• Martin Scorsese, Silence
Previous "nominations": Only Scorsese, who ties the Coen Brothers for most career nominations, with five. He's won Best Director twice—for The Departed (2006) and The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)—and also placed 5th for Kundun (1997) and 3rd for Gangs of New York (2002).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Chazelle, Jenkins.
Just missed: Keith Maitland, Tower (#21); Ezra Edelman, O.J.: Made in America (#22); Jeremy Saulnier, Green Room (#23); Shane Black, The Nice Guys (#24); Roberto Minervini, The Other Side (#25).
Not so much: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (#39).
• Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
• Sonia Braga, Aquarius
• Rebecca Hall, Christine
• Sandra Hüller, Toni Erdmann
• Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Previous "nominations": Only Huppert, who gets her fourth. (The record for actors is currently five, shared by two-time Supporting Actress winner Scarlett Johansson and one-time Actress winner Tilda Swinton.) She placed 2nd in both acting categories in 2002, for The Piano Teacher and 8 Women, and also finished at #4 in Actress for Gabrielle (2006).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Huppert.
Just missed: Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (#21); Kim Min-hee, Right Now, Wrong Then (#22); Mackenzie Davis, Always Shine (#23); Kim Tae-ri, The Handmaiden (#24); Lily Rabe, Miss Stevens (#25).
Not so much: Nobody. With Streep noted above at #21, every notable prizewinner is accounted for. Rare!
• Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
• Adam Driver, Paterson
• Colin Farrell, The Lobster
• Ryan Gosling, The Nice Guys
• Peter Simonischek, Toni Erdmann
Previous "nominations": Gosling won Best Actor in 2006 for Half Nelson and finished 4th in 2011 for Drive. Affleck placed 2nd in 2007 for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Affleck. (Gosling is an Oscar nominee in this category, but for his performance in La La Land—see below.)
Just missed: Mel Gibson, Blood Father (#21); Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (#22); Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (#23); Anton Yelchin, Green Room (#24); Quentin Dolmaire, My Golden Days (#25).
Not so much: Ryan Gosling, La La Land (#29); Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (#48).
Best Supporting Actor
• Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
• Tom Bennett, Love & Friendship
• Alden Ehrenreich, Hail, Caesar!
• Lucas Hedges, Manchester By The Sea
• Issey Ogata, Silence
Previous "nominations": None
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Ali, Hedges.
Just missed: Tracy Letts, Christine (#21); Daniel Radcliffe, Swiss Army Man (#22); Patrick Stewart, Green Room (#23); Gil Birmingham, Hell or High Water (#24); Greg Kinnear, Little Men (#25).
Not so much: Dev Patel, Lion (no votes).
Best Supporting Actress
• Paulina García, Little Men
• Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
• Lily Gladstone, Certain Women
• Kristen Stewart, Certain Women
• Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea
Previous "nominations": Gerwig placed 2nd in the lead category three years ago for Frances Ha. Stewart won Supporting Actress last year for Clouds of Sils Maria. Williams gets her third nomination, having previously landed at #2 in Supporting for Brokeback Mountain (2005) and #4 in Actress for Wendy and Lucy (2008).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Williams.
Just missed: Angeliki Papoulia, The Lobster (#21); Tilda Swinton, Doctor Strange (#22); Lucy Boynton, Sing Street (tie for #23); Kristen Stewart, Café Society (tie for #23); Zoey Deutch, Everybody Wants Some!! (#25).
Not so much: Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (#58); Nicole Kidman, Lion (#91).
• Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann
• Shane Black & Anthony Bagarozzi, The Nice Guys
• Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou, The Lobster
• Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
• Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship
Previous "nominations": Almost everyone. Lonergan won this category for You Can Count on Me (2000) and placed 2nd for Margaret (despite amassing over 500 points—he had the bad luck of seeing that film get delayed long enough to compete against A Separation, which would likely win Best Screenplay of the Century to Date). Black placed 3rd for Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (2005). Lanthimos and Filippou placed 2nd for Dogtooth (2010). And Stillman placed 5th for Damsels in Distress (2012). (Ade's screenplay for Everyone Else was the best of 2010, but just missed, due to the idiocy of others, finishing at #6.)
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Lanthimos & Filippou (incredibly), Lonergan.
Just missed: Mia Hansen-Løve, Things to Come (#21); Damien Chazelle, La La Land (#22); Corneliu Porumboiu, The Treasure (tie for #23); Craig Shilowich, Christine (tie for #23); August Wilson, Fences (#25).
Not so much: Eric Heisserer, Arrival (#27); Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (no votes); Luke Davies, Lion (no votes).
Nah, I gotta save something as a surprise.