• Call Me by Your Name
• A Ghost Story
• Personal Shopper
• Phantom Thread
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread.
Just missed: Ex Libris (#21), The Killing of a Sacred Deer (#22), Colossal (tie for #23), Marjorie Prime (tie for #23), 4 Days in France (#25).
Not so much: The Shape of Water (#28); Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (#29); Darkest Hour (no votes), The Post (no votes, though Bilge would likely have given it one).
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
• Darren Aronofsky, mother!
• Bertrand Bonello, Nocturama
• Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
• David Lowery, A Ghost Story
Previous "nominations": PTA ties Scorsese and the Coens for the all-time record, with five; a winner for There Will Be Blood in 2007, he also placed 4th for Magnolia in 1999, 2nd for The Master in 2012, and 4th for Inherent Vice in 2014. Aronofsky and Bonello each get their second nomination, with the former having finished 2nd for Black Swan (2010) and the latter 3rd for House of Pleasures (2011).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: PTA.
Just missed: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water (#21); Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (#22); Michael Almereyda, Marjorie Prime (#23); Kogonada, Columbus (#24); Alexander Payne, Downsizing (#25).
Not so much: Nobody. All of the Oscar nominees finished in the top 22. A rarity.
• Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
• Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion
• Haley Lu Richardson, Columbus
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
• Kristen Stewart, Personal Shopper
Previous "nominations": Stewart gets her third consecutive nomination, following her Supporting Actress win for Clouds of Sils Maria and her 3rd-place finish in the same category last year for Certain Women. (The last actor who landed in the top five three years in a row was Joaquin Phoenix, 2012–14. Nobody's ever done four.) Nixon previously placed 3rd in Supporting for James White (2015).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Ronan.
Just missed: Nicole Kidman, The Beguiled (#21); Anya Taylor-Joy, Split (#22); Agustina Muñoz, Hermia & Helena (tie for #23); Meryl Streep, The Post (tie for #23); Isabelle Huppert, Happy End (#25).
Not so much: Once again, nobody. The Oscars are clearly improving.
• Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
• Robert Pattinson, Good Time
• Vince Vaughn, Brawl in Cell Block 99
Previous "nominations": Only Day-Lewis, who finishes his career (assuming he sticks to his announced retirement) with four total nominations, two shy of the current all-time record (held by Cate Blanchett). He's won both Actor (There Will Be Blood, 2007) and Supporting Actor (Gangs of New York, 2002), and also finished 2nd in Actor for Lincoln (2012).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Kaluuya.
Just missed: Jean-Louis Trintignant, Happy End (#21); Hugh Jackman, Logan (#22); Tom Cruise, American Made (#23); Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats (#24); John Cho, Columbus (#25).
Not so much: Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (#38); Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (#64).
Best Supporting Actor
• Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
• Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
• Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
• Ray Romano, The Big Sick
• Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
Previous "nominations": None.
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Dafoe.
Just missed: Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (#21); Sebastian Stan, I, Tonya (#22); Tadanobu Asano, Harmonium (#23); Jon Hamm, Marjorie Prime (#24); Bill Camp, Molly's Game (#25).
Not so much: Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (#40); Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (#48).
Best Supporting Actress
• Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
• Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
• Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
• Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
• Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project
Previous "nominations": Just Manville, who placed 3rd in this category for Another Year (2010). Though Hunter and Pfeiffer are getting their first nominations only because their respective heydays predate the Skandies. (Nice to see 53 as the average age in one of the female acting categories—only Vinaite is younger than 59!)
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Manville, Metcalf.
Just missed: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (#21); Hong Chau, Downsizing (#22); Catherine Keener, Get Out (#23); Kirin Kiki, After the Storm (#24); Fantine Harduin, Happy End (#25).
Not so much: Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (#89).
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
• Noah Baumbach, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
• Jordan Peele, Get Out
• S. Craig Zahler, Brawl in Cell Block 99
Previous "nominations": Baumbach—whose film finished 38th in Picture!—trails only the Coen Brothers all-time, with six nominations (to their eight). He won outright in 2005 for The Squid and the Whale, and has also placed 4th for Margot at the Wedding (2007), 5th for Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009, written with Wes Anderson), 2nd for Frances Ha (2013, written with Greta Gerwig), and 4th for Mistress America (2015, also written with Gerwig). And, hey, that also covers Gerwig, who gets her third nomination, first solo. PTA, now with four, won for There Will Be Blood in 2007 and also placed 4th for The Master (2012) and 3rd for Inherent Vice (2014).
Overlap with Oscar nominees: Gerwig, Peele. But not Anderson, weirdly.
Just missed: Nacho Vigalondo, Colossal (#21); Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor, Downsizing (#22); Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (#23); Yorgos Lanthimos & Efthymis Filippou, The Killing of a Sacred Deer (#24); Jérôme Reybaud, 4 Days in France (#25).
Not so much: Kumail Nanjiani & Emily V. Gordon, The Big Sick (#29); Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game (#32, big shocker imo); Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water (#34); Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan (#46); Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist (no votes); Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound (no votes).
Readjusting final predictions:
1. Dafoe (side note: have also been entertaining the notion that Keoghan would win, but decided the Skandies crew tends to favour naturalism over mannered idiosyncrasy. Though that might just be a related to my distaste for Keoghan's perf- if anything, he gives a more interesting turn in Dunkirk.)
2. Keoghan (but I predict he'll have more voters than Stuhlbarg)
Everything else is a bit up in the air right now. And Mike, can I ask: did Howery receive any votes? Figured he'd scrape at least the bottom of the top 20 for that Eyes Wide Shut rant alone, or even that phone scene with Williams (who also has been surprisingly unpopular).
Only one vote for Howery. Three votes for Lakeith Stanfield, who was only two points shy of appearing among the just-misses.
Dancaster Lodd predicted:
Well I am hoping you have underestimated the passion of the K-Stew contingent. I'd be a little surprised if she didn't crack the top 3 but stranger things have happened.
Had assumed the Sallittists had been mezzo-mezzo on the Assayas (I recall Sallitt dissing it on Twitter?). I just can't see KStew winning when Ronan seems so blatantly obvious to me. But anyway, I'm not a voter, so...
This is the Dardennes' first whiff in the Skandies era -- all of their films save ROSETTA placed in the Top 20, and that film at least had Dequenne make the Top 20 in her category. It doesn't sound like either the film or Haenel were even close.
(Kaaluya, Stewart, Keoghan, Manville)
"This is the Skandies' first whiff in the Dardennes era..."
Last year also saw the first narrative Malick film to be completely ignored. (Even Bilge didn't top ten Song to Song, though it did get one lonely vote from Jeremy.)
When Columbus didn't show up among the films, I'd resigned myself to Richardson being forgotten as well. Good job other buds for at least recognizing her awesomeness.
I put Haenel #1 in a strong field.
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